WTC Final Scenarios: What are India’s chances if they lose Border-Gavaskar Trophy? | Cricket News
NEW DELHI: India’s hopes of making it to the World Test Championship (WTC) Final face a steep challenge as the Border-Gavaskar Trophy enters its final stretch.
With the five-match series currently level at 1-1, any slip-up could have significant consequences on their qualification chances.
In the weather-affected third Test at the Gabba, persistent rain denied both teams a result, with Australia setting India a target of 275 runs before rain forced play to be abandoned with India at 8/0.
The drawn match leaves India needing strong performances in the remaining two Tests to maintain their WTC Final aspirations.
However, if India lose the series either 1-2 or 1-3, they will finish the WTC cycle with a percentage points tally (PCT) of 51.75%—not enough to secure a place in the top two of the WTC standings.
This scenario would eliminate India from contention, with Australia and South Africa cementing their positions above them.
In the current standings (If India lose BGT):
- Australia have been consistent in this WTC cycle and will likely retain their spot in the final, even if they lose their upcoming matches against Sri Lanka.
- South Africa, though inconsistent, have sufficient buffer to stay ahead of India even if they falter in their series against Pakistan.
How Sri Lanka Could Surpass India?
The equation becomes more complicated with Sri Lanka’s involvement. If Sri Lanka win their upcoming series against Australia 2-0, they will climb to a PCT of 53.85%, overtaking India and securing a place in the WTC Final.
To avoid elimination, India must avoid defeat in the ongoing series. Stronger contributions from the top order, an improved spin strategy, and fitness clarity for key bowlers like Jasprit Bumrah are essential.
With the WTC Final at stake, India not only need to focus on their own performance but will also rely on other results falling in their favour. Anything less than a series draw or win will leave Rohit Sharma and his men watching the WTC Final from the sidelines.
